Author

Yilin Zheng, Jiewei Li, Ming Lu

Abstract

This paper constructs a monthly intercity population flow index using high-frequency coach flow datafrom 2018 to 2019 in China.Within a framework integrating geographic,cultural,and institutional factors,it investigates the potential institutional barriers to cross-regional population flow.The findingsreveal that both non-institutional factors (natural geographic barriers and cultural differences) and institutional factors—primarily administrative forces—significantly hinder cross-regional population movements,revealing strong provincial border effects.These findings remain robust after controlling for geographic proximity,substitution effects of direct rail services,and validation using mobile signaling data.Further analysis indicates that population flow,compared with commodity flow measured by truck traffic,faces a more pronounced provincial border effect,particularly in cross-regional labor mobility.Whilethe traditional household registration system (hukou) significantly affects long-term migration,its impacton short-term population flow is relatively limited.